A dismal prognosis for our future. Depending on your criteria, your #4 might be here already. Amazon Prime Video offers subscriptions through them to lots of other platforms, and I think Hulu might have a few also.
I’m preparing my articles on AI and Consulting. I think that at least two different scenarios need to be considered. One which is this is as good as general purpose GenAI is going to get, now what do we do? TONS of change. The second is a significant market collapse started with little firms but then OpenAI collapses as it is very precarious (which could ripple to Microsoft). Google and Amazon probably survive and pick up the pieces. That’s why learning ChatGPT or telling people to is not likely a great long term strategy. Learn several; don’t commit.
I didn’t. I am remiss about staying up on international football like I should. I am sort of an arrogant throwback (who is completely out of step) in that I think the only teams to care about are the top 10 in Europe and Brazil / Argentina.
it was interesting in Costa Rica that every little village had a church (each quite different), a school and a football pitch (which were well used)
The top teams get all the glory! But I love how you noticed those village pitches alongside churches and schools. It’s like football is its own kind of local religion in places like Costa Rica. enjoy your evening.
No. 3 is the worst for me - so sad you got it right, David. We just have to hope that there is eventually a retro-appreciation of real art I guess. But will it be too late? Will new generations even be able to tell the difference?
It is quite sad. I think that “real” art by humans could die out. I don’t know that enough people care to go out of their way to ensure what they listen to, read, look at or watch is stamped “Made by a Human”
It does. But there are different issues at play that make comparisons to earlier technologies like cars yield little insight. A prediction I could have made was one cataclysmic event caused by AI but that will be for 2026. Lots of whiplashing if that is a word. I keep reading lots of business/ corporate anecdotes of success stories yet more robust academic or consultant studies of failures. I think it is a useful productivity tool on an individual basis.
i personally am so far behind on things that I want to be doing. My inbox is defeating me
I think having AI tools embedded in business settings, like inside email to tweak or dictate responses or to help organize and lightly personalize recurring replies, can be incredibly useful. On an individual level, things like that really can be both efficient and sanity-saving.
But when it comes to large-scale implementation, like customer service systems or academic advising, I don’t see how that works at scale. It might help filter or sort but doing a huge portion of the job?
I read something recently about people using AI to write code, only to have that same code break something else and cost hours to fix. That’s the risk. You can’t rely on it without common sense or use it as a shortcut.
The email stuff has been around since before I retired in 2019. It provides small productivity improvements which made do nothing because of Parkinson’s Law
I think general purpose LLM/LRMs cannot be embedded in any integral or crucial business process without significant human oversight which defeats the purpose.
I have had a few people ask me / tell me about vibe coding. My response was if I was still at practising consultant I would absolutely love it. It’d be like GM‘s old Mr. Goodwrench: You can pay me now or you can pay me later.
A dismal prognosis for our future. Depending on your criteria, your #4 might be here already. Amazon Prime Video offers subscriptions through them to lots of other platforms, and I think Hulu might have a few also.
You are right about Amazon Prime. I think Hulu are all Disney properties though. Maybe I’ll give myself half points
AI adoption is more like a rickety tram with the occasional explosion.
We are in sync this week topic-wise.
I’m preparing my articles on AI and Consulting. I think that at least two different scenarios need to be considered. One which is this is as good as general purpose GenAI is going to get, now what do we do? TONS of change. The second is a significant market collapse started with little firms but then OpenAI collapses as it is very precarious (which could ripple to Microsoft). Google and Amazon probably survive and pick up the pieces. That’s why learning ChatGPT or telling people to is not likely a great long term strategy. Learn several; don’t commit.
I love how you’re thinking beyond the hype.
Both massive disruption and market shakeouts are real possibilities. Betting on just one AI tool feels risky.
Spreading knowledge definitely seems the way to go.
The humanoid footballers probably played better than the USA team on Sunday lol
Did you watch the USA-Mexico game?
Happy Tuesday David.
I didn’t. I am remiss about staying up on international football like I should. I am sort of an arrogant throwback (who is completely out of step) in that I think the only teams to care about are the top 10 in Europe and Brazil / Argentina.
it was interesting in Costa Rica that every little village had a church (each quite different), a school and a football pitch (which were well used)
Totally Fair, David.
The top teams get all the glory! But I love how you noticed those village pitches alongside churches and schools. It’s like football is its own kind of local religion in places like Costa Rica. enjoy your evening.
No. 3 is the worst for me - so sad you got it right, David. We just have to hope that there is eventually a retro-appreciation of real art I guess. But will it be too late? Will new generations even be able to tell the difference?
It is quite sad. I think that “real” art by humans could die out. I don’t know that enough people care to go out of their way to ensure what they listen to, read, look at or watch is stamped “Made by a Human”
Tech never really moves in straight lines but right now, it’s more zig and zag than anyone could’ve predicted. Feels like constant tectonic whiplash.
It does. But there are different issues at play that make comparisons to earlier technologies like cars yield little insight. A prediction I could have made was one cataclysmic event caused by AI but that will be for 2026. Lots of whiplashing if that is a word. I keep reading lots of business/ corporate anecdotes of success stories yet more robust academic or consultant studies of failures. I think it is a useful productivity tool on an individual basis.
i personally am so far behind on things that I want to be doing. My inbox is defeating me
I think having AI tools embedded in business settings, like inside email to tweak or dictate responses or to help organize and lightly personalize recurring replies, can be incredibly useful. On an individual level, things like that really can be both efficient and sanity-saving.
But when it comes to large-scale implementation, like customer service systems or academic advising, I don’t see how that works at scale. It might help filter or sort but doing a huge portion of the job?
I read something recently about people using AI to write code, only to have that same code break something else and cost hours to fix. That’s the risk. You can’t rely on it without common sense or use it as a shortcut.
The email stuff has been around since before I retired in 2019. It provides small productivity improvements which made do nothing because of Parkinson’s Law
I think general purpose LLM/LRMs cannot be embedded in any integral or crucial business process without significant human oversight which defeats the purpose.
I have had a few people ask me / tell me about vibe coding. My response was if I was still at practising consultant I would absolutely love it. It’d be like GM‘s old Mr. Goodwrench: You can pay me now or you can pay me later.
These are great. I loved your new take on these developments, and I really appreciate your way of sharing about these, David!
Thanks for the feedback Hans