Every single tech revolution in history has started with a disastrously famous beginning. Thinking back to my youth as computers, then gaming systems, then cell phones hit the stage, there were always more promises than productivity. On another note, I'm eerily fascinated by the prowess of individuals that can squeeze behind doors we don't even know exist and horrified at the same time.
Thanks for reading and commenting. In this case the amount of money spent on AI development is mind numbing in size. Dwarfs every other technology. Makes the hype cycle huge too.
I’m not sure. I think that between academic and other analysts it is clear that the current architectural models for non-specialized AI is reaching a peak. In the past what has happened, and I was around as a consultant during the expert system days of the 1980s, is that investment in AI stopped and you got the so-called winters which we’ve had at least twice. I think probably starting in 2026 we’ll start to adapt to the shortcomings and that people will start to build software that will help overcome them. The real problem is people accepting it as is which isn’t good enough.
Yes, David there are technical issues which may be relatively straightforward to solve or improve. But then there are the cognitive/emotional/social/political issues which are intertwined and a lot tougher to address. Fascinating to follow…
I think the technological problems are more difficult than we think. The cognitive and emotional ones I believe are up to each individual to decide based on their behavioral impacts (after they are older than 25). The social, cultural and political are going to test every bit of our collective fibers. This is a time for hard questions and of rejecting easy answers
Funny story, last month, I asked ChatGPT to help plan a product launch timeline, and it confidently suggested we could do user testing, iterate on feedback, AND finalize manufacturing in the same week. When I pointed out the logical impossibility, it just... agreed and suggested a completely different timeline that was equally unrealistic.
I've also noticed is I ask AI a simple question and it goes down these elaborate rabbit holes, but give it something genuinely complex and it basically gives up after the first hurdle.
The disappointing part is that despite knowing that AI has limitations, we've collectively decided to ignore them.
We've become a civilization of shoulder-shruggers just like you said.
I think more and more people will see a more constrained role for Gen AI; or at least the good organizations will. It is great for getting lots of ideas but it has no idea what the most important ones are. I haven’t used it for generating writing except it is a damn good thesaurus. Have a great day
Thanks for your comments Hans. Neela and I chatted about it after her article. She thinks its ignorance. I think some of it is, but some of it is what I call smoker’s syndrome: its not going to get me
I'm loving the new layout, David. It looks spectacular. Honestly, I think a lot of people are just feeling overwhelmed with all of the AI information. The more they hear, the more overloaded they get, and the more they're just going to shrug.
Thanks Bette. Appreciated. Unfortunately the psychological theory which has had some rigorous study that if people hear something enough times they believe it is coming true.
Every single tech revolution in history has started with a disastrously famous beginning. Thinking back to my youth as computers, then gaming systems, then cell phones hit the stage, there were always more promises than productivity. On another note, I'm eerily fascinated by the prowess of individuals that can squeeze behind doors we don't even know exist and horrified at the same time.
Thank you for the insightful information.
Thanks for reading and commenting. In this case the amount of money spent on AI development is mind numbing in size. Dwarfs every other technology. Makes the hype cycle huge too.
When productivity is your only goal, quality and even logic don't count. How long do you think this phase will last?
I’m not sure. I think that between academic and other analysts it is clear that the current architectural models for non-specialized AI is reaching a peak. In the past what has happened, and I was around as a consultant during the expert system days of the 1980s, is that investment in AI stopped and you got the so-called winters which we’ve had at least twice. I think probably starting in 2026 we’ll start to adapt to the shortcomings and that people will start to build software that will help overcome them. The real problem is people accepting it as is which isn’t good enough.
Yes, David there are technical issues which may be relatively straightforward to solve or improve. But then there are the cognitive/emotional/social/political issues which are intertwined and a lot tougher to address. Fascinating to follow…
I think the technological problems are more difficult than we think. The cognitive and emotional ones I believe are up to each individual to decide based on their behavioral impacts (after they are older than 25). The social, cultural and political are going to test every bit of our collective fibers. This is a time for hard questions and of rejecting easy answers
Funny story, last month, I asked ChatGPT to help plan a product launch timeline, and it confidently suggested we could do user testing, iterate on feedback, AND finalize manufacturing in the same week. When I pointed out the logical impossibility, it just... agreed and suggested a completely different timeline that was equally unrealistic.
I've also noticed is I ask AI a simple question and it goes down these elaborate rabbit holes, but give it something genuinely complex and it basically gives up after the first hurdle.
The disappointing part is that despite knowing that AI has limitations, we've collectively decided to ignore them.
We've become a civilization of shoulder-shruggers just like you said.
Thank you so much for the mention, David.
Happy Tuesday.
I think more and more people will see a more constrained role for Gen AI; or at least the good organizations will. It is great for getting lots of ideas but it has no idea what the most important ones are. I haven’t used it for generating writing except it is a damn good thesaurus. Have a great day
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bonnie-dilber_if-youre-interviewing-with-zapier-or-are-activity-7336454428515889153-xRib?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABo1HZQBn5v7yn647RyByIkUJ9r7XrSTedQ
Check this out - I am crafting an article based on this post and rubric.
It was an interesting share.
I did laugh out loud but this is the direction we are going.
I heard about this. The first few comments were very supportive. One guy is exponentially more productive with AI. He must have been a slug
LOL
the comments are always interesting in these. I will share the article in a week or so when I’m done.
Happy Wednesday David :)
I enjoyed this one about not shrugging, and was also alarmed at how casually society views hacking of privacy. Thanks for sharing about what AI can do
Thanks for your comments Hans. Neela and I chatted about it after her article. She thinks its ignorance. I think some of it is, but some of it is what I call smoker’s syndrome: its not going to get me
I'm loving the new layout, David. It looks spectacular. Honestly, I think a lot of people are just feeling overwhelmed with all of the AI information. The more they hear, the more overloaded they get, and the more they're just going to shrug.
Thanks Bette. Appreciated. Unfortunately the psychological theory which has had some rigorous study that if people hear something enough times they believe it is coming true.
It’s hard to fight human nature David!
To our eternal sadness and unfortunate peril