My 2025 Technology Predictions!
It’s a mug’s game but somebody has to do. What say you? Evidently there are a lot of mugs in the world.
As 2024 draws to a close I’m very grateful for so many things. I particularly enjoyed my writing…… Oops, wrong holiday, that was back in October (November in the USA). Let the predictions begin! I will follow up next year to see how I did
Ten Technology Predictions for 2025
AI adoption will continue on an uneven course. Unlike others who are forecasting AI to either explode or implode (dubious dichotomous thinking), I see it progressing on an erratic path forward. It’s “intelligence” levels - the focus of so many - will not make any quantum jumps this year. The lack of sustainable business models for the general purpose AI products will likely result in organizational consolidations (mergers and acquisitions). Some specialized use cases will take off (for instance, in the healthcare and medical research fields) while other uses will be remained mired by AI’s structural faults (hallucinations and misinformation anyone). The biggest change will be that more people will try it and adopt it for some tasks, which is the first step to mass adoption.
Google Search and Wikipedia will be negatively impacted by AI assimilation. The bloated, SEO gamed, over-monetized search tool from Alphabet will see real usage cracks, as more people realize how effective AND efficient the variety of AI tools are to actually find out what you really are looking for. Similar effect for the bureaucratic, overly political Wikipedia. I no longer have to read the latest in political correctness or false controversies in biographies, for instance. Alphabet still has YouTube and a growing cloud business to offset these impacts, while Wikipedia has a huge cash war chest, despite their constant pleading for more money.
AI will continue to erode human art and entertainment. For reasons I cannot begin to understand, many people seem to not only accept AI generated art forms but actively seek them out. Streamers will increase the amount of AI augmented / created music featured on their AI controlled algorithms. Similarly visual content will be dominated at both the macro (major films) and micro (vid-ettes YouTube, TikTok and others) levels by AI produced imagery. Art and books will also be affected. ChatGPT poems anyone?
The first streaming mega bundle will be launched. There will be a mega bundled offering in the film / TV space across different streaming organizations and corporate entities (Disney’s bundle is all their owned properties). Thus we will have successfully recreated something we said we didn’t want but apparently our behaviours say otherwise: cable bundles. Instead of hundreds of irrelevant channels, we will now have thousands of mediocre viewing options with very little high quality content. Not really much different for all our cable cutting.
There will be at least one major violent incident due to distorted video. Our continued reliance on social media for crucial information coupled with the growth in producing life-like AI visual imagery of anything, will lead to the malicious fabrication of the truth with associated (false) video evidence. Reality will be harder to perceive.
Forecasts continue after a brief plug to subscribe
Cybercrime will amp up even more and there will be 1 or more major hacks. This will be caused by 3 factors. Our business organizations STILL don’t take cybersecurity seriously in terms of strategy, practices and software to prevent or minimize cybercrime’s impact. The unsettled nature of our world will result in more political driven actors. AI will generate more methods and toolsets for non-political crooks looking to make money. It’s a growth industry!
Tiktok’s outcome will create a domino effect. Despite Trump’s looming meddling with this American law, ByteDance will be forced to divest TikTok. Depending on how it actually happens, this will likely trigger a rippling set of mergers and acquisitions of social media platforms over next 2 years.
Worldwide commitment to nuclear power will grow. Despite entrenched resistance from some groups in society, nuclear energy - especially small plant infrastructure - will pass a critical threshold. It will be driven by HighTech companies committed to AI who have gigantic mounds of cash, as well as independent thinking nations - from Portugal to Argentina - committing to their own homemade form of green energy.
We will continue to not make medical progress on Alzheimers. Similar to what happened to cancer research for decades until research breakthroughs like immunotherapy and earlier detection, scientific progress on Alzheimers’s is hindered by too much research based in an ideological rut. We need widespread, diverse investments in research of all types, not just in the same well-furrowed but ineffective path.
Certainly the least important prediction: BlueSky will not be a X killer. Despite the progressives-based growth surge in BlueSky after Trump’s election, it will not bring down the micro-blogging house of Elon (here is the obligatory used to be Twitter phrase). It suffers from an atmosphere of smugness but that isn’t the problem. Despite some feature differences, human behaviour, at its most negative, will limit it as an alternative. It will remain stuck as a relatively unimportant social media platform.
BONUS: Foolish predictions about Silly Valley
I have long had a love-hate relationship with Silicon Valley, the innovation and technological nexus for most of the world. My antipathy grows as their ideologies and ethos permeate more of our worldviews. I will continue to take the mickey out of them and their supporters every chance I get.
Elon Musk will announce that he is expecting three more children (by three different mothers) in 2025. After having only one child borne last year he needs to get his progeny numbers up in his quest for a multigenerational monarchy on Mars.
Another tech titan, taking the Valley’s longevity craze in a new direction, will be found to be creating test tube clones of himself.
Twelve lesser Silly Valley players will form a Council to advise (suck up to) Trump. They will be referred to as Trump disciples.
Over 1000 new apps will be launched by Valley funded startups, justified as solving big social and customer problems. They will soon be exposed as simple automations of ordinary human interactions like ordering food, to do and schedule management, and travel recommendation. But they will be using the magic ingredient - AI.
Agentic will be mentioned more than 1 million times in marketing from Silly Valley companies.
Well that was fun! Hope you enjoyed it and it did arrive on Monday morning. I will be back in 2025 with a new look and website. Have a great New Year’s Eve, which will be enhanced, for me at least, by sharing this article around.