There were possible major airborne security breeches - we don’t seem to care and we can’t seem to stop them
Besides the puny American response to this threat, we have an update on AI agents, 5 things I would never do and FTW on digital transformation
The Headliner: Under the Radar Story on Drones Flying Unimpeded Over Military Areas
No real response and no real interest either
For many people drones are those silly flying machines you can buy for a few hundred dollars and amuse your other nerd friends, endlessly flying about taking pictures from different viewpoints and spying on the unsuspecting. Good clean fun. You know, this generation’s equivalent of radio controlled planes and helicopters.
But for people following the Russian invasion of the Ukraine know just how effective drones can be for military and supply purposes. They has literally changed the complexion of how wars are fought. Advances, many stimulated by this conflict, are changing drones incredibly quickly in terms of range, size, expense, and payload.
Now, for those canny enough to find it in the “news”, comes a disturbing story of groups of drones evidently swarming military areas in the United States without any real way of stopping them. And we don’t really know who was controlling them.
They were sophisticated and flew in patterns. They flew for hours each night for 17 nights in a row. Maybe just some bold flyboys really showing off. Hmm? In addition to not using commercial drone frequencies, these formations were able to evade a sustained and multi-faceted military and police response. Doesn’t sound like amateurs to me.
So the first thing I thought of was just shoot them down. “Federal law prohibits the military from shooting down drones near military bases in the U.S. unless they pose an imminent threat. Aerial snooping doesn’t qualify, though some lawmakers hope to give the military greater leeway.” But surely they did lots of other things to repel this swarm. Not true, the various authorities mostly just thought of other things -like jamming their navigation systems, using directed energy, and shooting nets at them (I kid you not) - that they ruled out without trying. Radar couldn’t track them properly. There were literal keystone cops chasing them about using vehicles on the ground but surprisingly they disappeared.
This seems to me this is most short sighted. It’s ok to actively spy on the USA, gather loads of important intelligence as that isn’t an imminent threat. No but it turn into an imminent threat tomorrow. One hopes that somehow they knew that the drones weren’t armed in anyway, but when you read about them “vanishing each night despite a wealth of resources deployed to catch them” and “the sightings revealed the dilemma of defending against drones on U.S. soil compared with the ease of deploying or battling them abroad” (Quotes from the Wall Street Journal) I’m not so confident.
The American response to this is totally ineffectual. Not sure the real threat is being perceived or the speed at which things can change. Another story that demonstrates how quickly technology runs ahead of not only our ability to understand it, but to manage it in an effective and reasonable manner
It is also a story about how news really is still part of the soap selling business, despite social media now being involved. Like the internet before it which promised a tremendous range of diverse and subtle topics & viewpoints that turned into “clip and paste” similarities, social media’s effect on the news has been correspondingly harmful: a few select stories repeated ad nauseam while a huge number of important issues go begging for attention.
Secondi: Follow up on AI Agents
Are you trusting them yet?
Remember all the claims (Salesforce stands out as a company who are many steps over the top in their promotional materials) that we are entering the 3rd (or is it the 4th) generation of AI, where agents are going to do lots of laborious tasks or projects for you. An example often cited is taking over in making travel arrangements.
Sounds great! Right now I am in the process of booking a “once in a lifetime as I’m turning 70” vacation, so the onerous nature of booking travel is fresh in my mind. Evenings spents searching and scrolling, trying to ignore the constantly changing prices that can make or break certain hotels; certain stops. No wonder I’m usually imbibing a glass or two of red wine to soften the digital edges.
Well, Gary Marcus is back with more empirical evidence to demonstrate that the AI travel agent days could be some ways off. Now these are robust research studies, some in the process of publishing results in scientific journals. This isn’t mere opinion. These studies stand in contrast the overwhelming marketing / PR hype, CEO visionary presentations, or my favourite annoyance, ordinary people farting about for a few days with the latest LLM (Large Language Model) tool of their choice and proclaiming loudly on LinkedIn how great these are and life will never be the same.
As you can see if you get into the analysis, all the models tested were confused if there was some extraneous information, or unusual word order. As Gary says,
𝖳𝗁𝖾𝗋𝖾 𝗂𝗌 𝗃𝗎𝗌𝗍 𝗇𝗈 𝗐𝖺𝗒 𝖼𝖺𝗇 𝗒𝗈𝗎 𝖻𝗎𝗂𝗅𝖽 r𝖾𝗅𝗂𝖺𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝖺𝗀𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝗈𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝖿𝗈𝗎𝗇𝖽𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇, where changing a word or two in irrelevant ways or adding a few bit of irrelevant info can give you a different answer
Let me get this straight: if my specifications aren’t completely clear, logical and straightforward instead of a reservation for a beachside cottage in Costa Rica I could end up enrolled in a beech tree college in the Carpathians?
What’s New in My World
Here in Canada we are well into autumn and on my little island it is raining. Somehow the showers are comforting, our fire is keeping us warm and cozy, as we prepare for a Thanksgiving feast later this afternoon. I’m grateful for everything I have in my life. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well!
FIVE THINGS: I Would Not Do
Links all clickable. No paywalls
Get into a truly - not in a test area or city - Autonomous Robotaxi. Evidently Tesla investors wouldn’t either.
Listen to Sam Altman the CEO of OpenAI talk, especially on a podcast. Evidently, Matt Stone of co-creator of my treasured series Southpark has a similar reaction as well.
Watch Mark Zuckerberg on Twitch playing his favourite video game. Or for that matter watch anyone on any video driven media play any game depite their popularity on Youtube, TikTok and the other reelers.
Sell my Nvidia (NVDA) shares yet. The doomsters and short sellers continue to be wrong. Yes I do own them. How do you think I can afford college in the Carpathians?
Let any child I know or grandchild of mine play Roblox. Or invest any money in them either.
What are yours?
FTW: Digital Transformation
The George Orwell Say What You Mean Department
This week I asking you to Forget This Phrase, not a word. It seems every project in every business organization is about transformation, usually with digital as the operative adjective. This phrase is ubiquitous, has lasted for years too long, and is now annoying. Especially when it basically is code for either an ongoing increase in IT spend, or the introduction of another ordinary IT system possibly using more modern technology. We have been implementing IT systems for decades now.
The real key - in the 1980s or up to the present day - is how much real and sustainable change occurs. That is the definition of transformation: “a complete change in the appearance or character of something or someone” (Cambridge Dictionary). But too often we are more interested in the words themselves and the virtue of their sound, rather than the meaning they represent. So organizations state to the public, their employees, their customers and their investors that they are undertaking a profound digital transformation when they are really just refreshing their website or implementing an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) system.
Now it is confusing what constitutes a digital transformation. Try and make common sense of this quote from McKinsey one of the world’s most famous consulting firms:
“Digital transformation is the rewiring of an organization, with the goal of creating value by continuously deploying tech at scale. A clear digital transformation strategy focused on specific domains and enabled by a set of specific capabilities is critical for organizations to not only compete but survive. Digital transformations are not a one-and-done project; most executives will be on this journey for the rest of their careers”
That sounds like what it is - a solid recipe for continuous consulting engagements - than something insightful about digital transformation.
Let’s venture back to the late 1980s when transformation began to be bandied about in business organizations. These were heady times in terms of the changes in management thought: just-in-time manufacturing, business process reengineering and TQM (Total Quality Management) were just some of the major movements that enterprises looked to incorporate. These were business not digital driven. But transformation - complete change by definition - depended on a host factors in each organization. Let me briefly share some of my consulting experiences to exemplify the differences:
The first business transformation I did was in 1988 with a public utility that wanted to become more responsive and eliminate head office bloat. They decentralized many business functions after simplifying them and dropped HO headcount very significantly. It was accompanied by new systems to facilitate this new view. Within about 6 years this same utility continued with business transformation projects, but by then they were mostly about studies and reports, fancy project names and modest improvements. The difference: new CEOs and CFOs, who lacked the original vision and commitment to sponsorship.
My consulting firm, founded in 1990 to take advantage of these movements, had no shortage of business transformation work. But I grew cynical as prospect and prospect wanted to talk and name projects but not really do anything substantial. I remember one large public enterprise calling me in and saying that they embraced bold change and wanted to drop costs by 35% and improve process throughput. I politely said that this was all do-able but over 90% of their budget was HR costs and a 35% reduction in costs meant laying off one-third of their workforce. This just wasn’t palatable to the CFO. Fair enough.
So let’s jump ahead to when digital transformations were happening. I had a series of small web-based projects for everyone’s beloved yoga clothing store in the late oughties. They were all successful. We did one for ecommerce at the same time. It quickly took off and we pointed out that it was grossing more than the average store was and many more features could be added. But they stopped any further investment in their e-commerce capabilities, saying there were too many tricky issues to work through. Eventually they got back to it. By 2020 direct-to-customer exceeded 50% of their total revenues. Imagine where they might have been if they had jump on all the positive indications much earlier.
My most satisfying experience with full fledged digital transformation took place in 1986/87. I was part of a well managed team that implemented the world’s first fully automated trading system to replace the antiquated floor of the stock exchange. We used new technologies and new ways of training and engaging people affected by the change. This system was immensely successful and allowed this exchange to grow its trading volumes significantly to have the third most daily transactions in the world at that time. The reasons for this success: fully engaged CEO sponsorship, committed operational executives, and a dedicated project team all supporting a completely new business vision.
That was digital transformation before either of these terms were used.
Or abused as they often are today.
I’ll be undergoing my own transformation over the next 6 to 8 weeks, shifting to more articles and posts about the entrepreneurial adventure, and my experiences starting and running 4 consulting firms, insights into the use of technology in business organizations, and explorations of the profound effect technology has on society and culture. Hopefully by late November I will also estart publishing weekly my first crime novel entitled The Long Twilight, featuring Harry Lancaster. Of course it will have technology baked into the plot. I’m excited to make this happen.
